Table 3 Prediction of suitable area of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus under different climatic scenarios
Shared socio-economic pathways, SSPs| Decades | Predicted area (×106 km2) and % of the corresponding current area | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total suitable area | Poorly suitable area | Moderately suitable area | Highly suitable area | ||||||
1970–2000 | 6.46 | 4.57 | 1.47 | 0.43 | |||||
SSP1-2.6 | 2050s | 7.86 | 121.75% | 5.75 | 126.00% | 1.35 | 92.35% | 0.76 | 177.23% |
2070s | 8.22 | 127.32% | 6.04 | 132.28% | 1.31 | 89.40% | 0.87 | 204.38% | |
2090s | 8.28 | 128.13% | 5.93 | 129.75% | 1.42 | 97.05% | 0.93 | 217.50% | |
SSP2-4.5 | 2050s | 8.10 | 125.33% | 5.94 | 130.13% | 1.23 | 83.65% | 0.93 | 217.13% |
2070s | 8.77 | 135.79% | 6.64 | 145.34% | 1.27 | 86.70% | 0.86 | 202.23% | |
2090s | 8.32 | 128.76% | 6.20 | 135.68% | 1.14 | 77.50% | 0.98 | 230.69% | |
SSP3-7.0 | 2050s | 8.21 | 127.04% | 6.07 | 132.96% | 1.29 | 88.12% | 0.84 | 197.40% |
2070s | 8.40 | 130.10% | 6.38 | 139.76% | 1.37 | 93.47% | 0.65 | 152.46% | |
2090s | 8.77 | 135.70% | 6.87 | 150.43% | 1.32 | 90.27% | 0.57 | 134.16% | |
SSP5-8.5 | 2050s | 8.82 | 136.60% | 6.68 | 146.26% | 1.22 | 82.90% | 0.93 | 217.71% |
2070s | 8.53 | 132.03% | 6.51 | 142.60% | 1.38 | 94.09% | 0.64 | 149.20% | |
2090s | 9.12 | 141.23% | 7.44 | 162.92% | 1.19 | 80.93% | 0.50 | 116.26% | |