|
Model name
|
Ln marginal likelihood
|
Log Bayes factor
|
Model probability
|
|---|
|
Step stone from coast
|
−5900.7
|
0
|
1.0
|
|
Source-sink from west
|
−5940.5
|
−79.6
|
5.1E−18
|
|
Source-sink from inland
|
−5941.5
|
−81.6
|
1.9E−18
|
|
Step stone from inland
|
−5944.9
|
−88.4
|
6.5E−20
|
|
Parameter
|
Median
|
Mean
|
95% CI
|
|---|
|
θ ‘Inland’
|
4.11
|
4.25
|
2.55–6.28
|
|
θ ‘West’
|
0.55
|
0.56
|
0.12–0.96
|
|
θ ‘North’
|
0.51
|
0.52
|
0.05–0.95
|
|
θ ‘South’
|
0.27
|
0.22
|
0–0.55
|
|
M ‘West’ → ‘Inland’
|
0.41
|
0.45
|
0–1.16
|
|
M ‘North’ → ‘West’
|
0.3
|
0.26
|
0–0.6
|
|
M ‘South’ → ‘West’
|
0.19
|
0.08
|
0–0.41
|
- Bayes factor values < 2 indicate a strong preference for the model with the highest probability. Θ, mutation scaled population size; M, mutation scaled migration rate; CI, confidence interval. For graphical model descriptions, see Additional file 1: Fig. S5
