Landscape and climatic features drive genetic differentiation processes in a South American coastal plant

Table 2 Model support statistics (upper panel) and parameter estimations taken from the best-supported model (lower panel)

Model name	Ln marginal likelihood	Log Bayes factor	Model probability
Step stone from coast	−5900.7	0	1.0
Source-sink from west	−5940.5	−79.6	5.1E−18
Source-sink from inland	−5941.5	−81.6	1.9E−18
Step stone from inland	−5944.9	−88.4	6.5E−20

Parameter	Median	Mean	95% CI
θ ‘Inland’	4.11	4.25	2.55–6.28
θ ‘West’	0.55	0.56	0.12–0.96
θ ‘North’	0.51	0.52	0.05–0.95
θ ‘South’	0.27	0.22	0–0.55
M ‘West’ → ‘Inland’	0.41	0.45	0–1.16
M ‘North’ → ‘West’	0.3	0.26	0–0.6
M ‘South’ → ‘West’	0.19	0.08	0–0.41

Bayes factor values < 2 indicate a strong preference for the model with the highest probability. Θ, mutation scaled population size; M, mutation scaled migration rate; CI, confidence interval. For graphical model descriptions, see Additional file 1: Fig. S5

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