Fig. 4

The most probable evolutionary transitions between plumage patterns over the whole body in Anseriformes and Galliformes. Depicted are models where scales evolved first in the robust analysis of Anseriformes, and scales are derived in Galliformes. Next to each transition is the marginal probability of a transition not occurring, followed by the marginal probability of it occurring. The width of the transition line is proportional to the rate of transition. A grey transition line indicates transitions that probably do not occur and black transition lines indicate transitions that probably occur. The marginal probability of occurring and not occurring does not equal due to variation in the top model set