Figure 3

Hyper-posterior and Hyper-prior samples given Hawaiian DNA sequence data (11 taxon-pairs). Dashed lines depict hyper-prior distributions and solid lines depict hyper-posterior distributions. Stage 1 hyper-parameter estimates: (A) Average effective population size E((θ _τ )₂) of the putatively colonized endemic populations at times the 11 isolation times (T _C and T _V ) across the seven (Y) taxon-pairs. (B) The number of descendent populations per seven (Y) taxon-pairs that arise by colonization at times $T_C=\{{\tau }_C^1,\mathrm{...},{\tau }_C^Z\}$. Stage 2 hyper-parameter estimates where hyper-prior is conditional given constant value of Z = 4: (C) ΩC dispersion index of Z = 4 colonization times; Ω _C = Var(τ _C )/E(τ _C ) where τ _C is colonization time. (D) Ω V dispersion index of Z = 7 soft vicariance times; Ω _V = Var(τ _V )/E(τ _V ) where τ _V is soft vicariance time time. (E) E(τ _C ), average colonization time across Z = 4 colonization times. (F) E(τ _V ), average soft vicariance time across 7 soft vicariance times. For each estimate, tolerance was 0.001 (2,000 accepted draws) using the local regression algorithm.