|
Patient
|
Best-fitting demographic model
|
μ
a
|
Nτ
b
|
Nτ close to transmissionc
|
|---|
| | | | |
Meand
|
HPDe upper
|
|---|
|
Horizontal transmission
| | | | |
|
p1
|
Logistic
|
0.0123
|
2293
|
36.00
|
153.19
|
|
p2
|
Logistic
|
0.0166
|
4441
|
27.98
|
148.32
|
|
p3
|
Logistic
|
0.0175
|
1612
|
29.02
|
80.12
|
|
p5
|
Exponential
|
0.0223
|
2439
|
287.78
|
670.67
|
|
p6
|
Logistic
|
0.0195
|
1511
|
7.86
|
20.39
|
|
p7
|
Logistic
|
0.0085
|
8632
|
253.78
|
1173.95
|
|
p8
|
Exponential
|
0.0162
|
6003
|
1722.98
|
2911.65
|
|
p9
|
Logistic
|
0.0071
|
7168
|
1283.11
|
3211.35
|
|
p11
|
Logistic
|
0.0128
|
6505
|
9.76
|
34.48
|
|
Mean
| |
0.0148
|
4512
|
406.47
|
933.79
|
|
Vertical transmission
| | | | |
|
p1
|
Logistic
|
0.0201
|
4183
|
15.48
|
79.99
|
|
p2
|
Constant
|
0.0560
|
275
|
275.46
|
511.97
|
|
p3
|
Constant
|
0.0163
|
383
|
383.27
|
714.69
|
|
p4
|
Exponential
|
0.0098
|
67696
|
1214.76
|
5810.63
|
|
p5
|
Exponential
|
0.0133
|
7372
|
1360.46
|
3444.98
|
|
p6
|
Constant
|
0.0251
|
183
|
181.98
|
323.10
|
|
p7
|
Exponential
|
0.0226
|
1165
|
151.26
|
294.62
|
|
p8
|
Constant
|
0.0145
|
521
|
521.84
|
857.01
|
|
p9
|
Exponential
|
0.0120
|
2740
|
191.34
|
405.22
|
|
p10
|
Logistic
|
0.0188
|
1050
|
384.47
|
877.21
|
|
p11
|
Logistic
|
0.0163
|
740
|
410.67
|
926.82
|
|
p12
|
Exponential
|
0.0206
|
1730
|
121.83
|
254.40
|
|
p13
|
Exponential
|
0.0218
|
2603
|
81.27
|
173.89
|
|
p14
|
Exponential
|
0.0164
|
1865
|
208.00
|
411.70
|
|
p15
|
Logistic
|
0.0397
|
889
|
1.55
|
4.80
|
|
p16
|
Logistic
|
0.0173
|
269904
|
261.90
|
577.67
|
|
p18
|
Logistic
|
0.0097
|
146723
|
960.34
|
1978.63
|
|
p19
|
Exponential
|
0.0095
|
2842
|
342.42
|
655.38
|
|
p21
|
Exponential
|
0.0053
|
302840
|
1712.90
|
4936.78
|
|
p22
|
Exponential
|
0.0046
|
547670
|
3159.60
|
11050.00
|
|
p23
|
Logistic
|
0.0093
|
123360
|
371.85
|
706.09
|
|
p24
|
Logistic
|
0.0102
|
97018
|
524.69
|
814.59
|
|
p25
|
Logistic
|
0.0071
|
2508
|
2194.63
|
4321.04
|
|
pa
|
Constant
|
0.0280
|
640
|
638.53
|
895.76
|
|
pb
|
Constant
|
0.0076
|
2006
|
2000.48
|
3593.83
|
|
pc
|
Constant
|
0.0094
|
879
|
879.45
|
1626.67
|
|
pd
|
Constant
|
0.0146
|
254
|
254.26
|
526.95
|
|
Mean
| |
0.0169
|
58890
|
696.47
|
1732.39
|
- aSubstitution rate in number of changes per site per year
- bProduct of the effective population size and generation time in days at the most recent time point
- cSeroconversion or birth for horizontally and vertically infected patients respectively
- dMean of the marginal posterior probability distribution of parameter values
- eHighest Posterior Density
