Fig. 3

Masked tip location inference from genomes (left) and GP sequences (right). Horizontal bars indicate the posterior distribution of masked tip locations, coloured by country (Sierra Leone in blue, Liberia in red, Guinea in green) and location (lighter colours indicate administrative divisions lying towards west of the country). The correct location of each tip is outlined in white with the smaller plot to the right showing only the posterior probability of the correct location. Bars marked with an open circle indicate cases where the correct location is within the 95% credible set and solid circles indicate cases where the location with the most probability mass is also the correct location. Posterior distribution of probability-weighted distances between population centroids of inferred and correct locations is shown at the bottom with mean indicated by a tick mark