Leaps and bounds: geographical and ecological distance constrained the colonisation of the Afrotemperate by Erica

Table 1 Best fitting biogeographic models given the best tree (DEC + J and DEC) and nine selected bootstrap trees (DEC + J)

Tree	Model	Dispersal multiplier	LnL	AIC	deltaAIC
Best (DEC + J)	DMP	0.5	−62.5	131	0
	DMP	0.1	−62.5	131	0
	DMP	0.25	−62.5	131	0
	DMP	0.75	−62.6	131.2	0.2
	Dist	–	−62.8	131.6	0.58
	SSS	0.5	−63.1	132.3	1.3
	SSS	0.25	− 63.3	132.7	1.7
Best (DEC)	DMP	0.75	−68.6	141.2	0
Best (DEC)	DMP	0.5	−68.7	141.3	0.1
BS 0_0	Niche + Dist	–	−61.2	128.4	0
	CtoC	0.25	−61.7	129.4	1
	CtoC	0.1	−62.1	130.1	1.7
	Dist	–	−62.2	130.4	2
0_1	Niche + Dist	–	−65.6	137.1	0
	CtoC	0.1	−65.8	137.6	0.5
	CtoC	0.25	−66.1	138.3	1.2
0_2	Niche + Dist	–	−60.2	126.3	0
	CtoC	0.25	−60.4	126.7	0.4
	CtoC	0.1	−60.4	126.9	0.6
	Dist	–	−61	127.9	1.6
1_0	CtoC	0.1	−58.7	123.5	0
1_0	CtoC	0.25	−59.5	124.9	1.4
1_1	Niche + Dist	–	−61.7	129.4	0
1_1	Niche	–	−62.6	131.2	1.8
1_2	Niche + Dist	–	−55.9	117.9	0
	CtoC	0.25	−56.5	119	1.1
	CtoC	0.1	−56.9	119.7	1.8
	Dist	–	− 56.9	119.7	1.8
2_0	Niche + Dist	–	−62.3	130.6	0
	CtoC	0.25	−62.6	131.2	0.6
	Dist	–	−62.8	131.5	0.9
	CtoC	0.1	−62.9	131.8	1.2
	CtoC	0.5	−63.1	132.3	1.7
	Niche	–	−63.2	132.4	1.8
2_1	Dist	–	−56.5	119.1	0
	DMP	0.1	−56.6	119.2	0.1
	DMP	0.25	−56.6	119.2	0.1
	DMP	0.5	−57	120	0.9
	CtoC	0.5	− 57.2	120.4	1.3
	Niche+Dist	–	−57.2	120.4	1.3
	CtoC	0.25	−57.5	121	1.9
	Niche	–	−57.6	121.1	2
2_2	Dist	–	−65.3	135.6	0
	Niche+Dist	–	−65.2	136.4	0.8
	DMP	0.25	−65.5	137	1.4
	CtoC	0.5	−65.5	137	1.4
	DMP	0.1	−65.5	137.1	1.5
	CtoC	0.25	−65.6	137.1	1.5
	Niche	–	−65.8	137.5	1.9
	DMP	0.5	−65.8	137.6	2

Dispersal multipliers are indicated where relevant, as are the Log likelihood (LnL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and overall deltaAIC scores for models. Models with deltaAIC of 0 are indicated in bold type. DMP = Drakensberg mekting-pot; Dist = Distance; SSS=Southerly stepping-stone; CtoC=Cape to Cairo

ISSN: 2730-7182