Clade-age-dependent diversification under high species turnover shapes species richness disparities among tropical rainforest lineages of Bulbophyllum (Orchidaceae)

Table 1 Stem and crown ages (in million of years ago, Ma) and diversification rate estimates of the four regional Bulbophyllum lineages and their potentially suitable areas under current climatic conditions (c. 1950–2000; see Fig. 6a) and those of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 21,000 years ago), as inferred from two climate models, CCSM and MIROC, and their consensus projection (see Fig. 6b)

Clade	N	Stem age	Crown age	Area				BAYESRATE			Magallón and Sanderson [53]
		(95% HPD)	(95% HPD)	current	LGM	LGM	LGM	r (95% HPD)	μ (95% HPD)	λ (95% HPD)	r (e = 0)	r (e = 0)	r (e = 0.9)	r (e = 0.9)
		(95% HPD)	(95% HPD)	current	CCSM	MIROC	Consensus	r (95% HPD)	μ (95% HPD)	λ (95% HPD)	Stem	Crown	Stem	Crown
Madagascar	210	17.66 (12.61–22.64)	12.36 (8.23–18.84)	7032	11,478	16,112	14,470	0.34 (0.20–0.50)	0.72 (0.29–1.21)	1.06 (0.69–1.44)	0.30	0.38	0.17	0.25
Africa	80	13.09 (8.81–17.21)	9.05 (5.75–12.91)	127,851	180,560	256,878	226,176	0.41 (0.22–0.59)	0.29 (0.0013–0.72)	0.70 (0.42–1.06)	0.33	0.41	0.17	0.24
Neotropics	94	13.09 (8.81–17.21)	10.27 (7.02–13.78)	140,456	349,980	468,849	397,909	0.27 (0.08–0.45)	0.80 (0.17–1.5)	1.08 (0.56–1.73)	0.34	0.37	0.18	0.22
Asia-Pacific region	1564	20.60 (16.20–25.63)	19.12 (14.81–23.85)	237,204	305,970	356,731	344,817	NA	NA	NA	0.36	0.35	0.25	0.26

Abbreviations: N, number of extant species (according to Sieder et al. [41]); λ, speciation rate; μ, extinction rate; r, net diversification rate (λ–μ); ε, extinction fraction (μ/λ); HPD, highest posterior probability
Area was estimated as the number of grid cells above the mean maximum training sensitivity plus specificity (MTSS) logistic threshold. Diversification rates were estimated using information on branching times (BAYESRATE) or clade age (either stem or crown) and clade size [53]

ISSN: 2730-7182