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Table 1 Stem and crown ages (in million of years ago, Ma) and diversification rate estimates of the four regional Bulbophyllum lineages and their potentially suitable areas under current climatic conditions (c. 1950–2000; see Fig. 6a) and those of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 21,000 years ago), as inferred from two climate models, CCSM and MIROC, and their consensus projection (see Fig. 6b)

From: Clade-age-dependent diversification under high species turnover shapes species richness disparities among tropical rainforest lineages of Bulbophyllum (Orchidaceae)

Clade N Stem age Crown age Area BAYESRATE Magallón and Sanderson [53]
(95% HPD) (95% HPD) current LGM LGM LGM r (95% HPD) μ (95% HPD) λ (95% HPD) r (e = 0) r (e = 0) r (e = 0.9) r (e = 0.9)
CCSM MIROC Consensus Stem Crown Stem Crown
Madagascar 210 17.66 (12.61–22.64) 12.36 (8.23–18.84) 7032 11,478 16,112 14,470 0.34 (0.20–0.50) 0.72 (0.29–1.21) 1.06 (0.69–1.44) 0.30 0.38 0.17 0.25
Africa 80 13.09 (8.81–17.21) 9.05 (5.75–12.91) 127,851 180,560 256,878 226,176 0.41 (0.22–0.59) 0.29 (0.0013–0.72) 0.70 (0.42–1.06) 0.33 0.41 0.17 0.24
Neotropics 94 13.09 (8.81–17.21) 10.27 (7.02–13.78) 140,456 349,980 468,849 397,909 0.27 (0.08–0.45) 0.80 (0.17–1.5) 1.08 (0.56–1.73) 0.34 0.37 0.18 0.22
Asia-Pacific region 1564 20.60 (16.20–25.63) 19.12 (14.81–23.85) 237,204 305,970 356,731 344,817 NA NA NA 0.36 0.35 0.25 0.26
  1. Abbreviations: N, number of extant species (according to Sieder et al. [41]); λ, speciation rate; μ, extinction rate; r, net diversification rate (λ–μ); ε, extinction fraction (μ/λ); HPD, highest posterior probability
  2. Area was estimated as the number of grid cells above the mean maximum training sensitivity plus specificity (MTSS) logistic threshold. Diversification rates were estimated using information on branching times (BAYESRATE) or clade age (either stem or crown) and clade size [53]