Fig. 5

The marginal probability of evolutionary transitions between plumage patterns in the feather tract of the breast in Anseriformes and Galliformes using unmodified phylogenies. Next to each transition is the marginal probability of a transition not occurring, followed by the marginal probability of it occurring. The width of the transition line is proportional to the rate of transition. Where the probability of a transition occurring is less than the probability of the transition not occurring, the transition line is grey indicating that it most probably does not occur. Conversely, where the marginal probability of it occurring is higher than not occurring, the transition line is black indicating that the transition probably occurs. The marginal probability of occurring and not occurring does not equal due to variation in the transitions represented in the top model set