Fig. 3

The summary model of local evolution within-patches across all seven plumage patches in Anseriformes and Galliformes. The first panel depicts models derived from unmodified phylogenies and the second panel depicts models derived from phylogenies with only branches with a Bayesian posterior probability = > 0.95 (see Methods). Next to each transition is the number of plumage patches in which the transition occurs out of the total number of plumage patches. The total number of plumage patches can vary from the maximum (seven) because in some patches particular patterns do not occur e.g. in Anseriformes no species have evolved spots on the rump, and the tail patch was excluded from the analyses, so the total number of plumage patches in which spots can evolve is five. Where transition lines have an intermediate value, e.g. 1.5/5 for a transition from absence to spots in Anseriformes, this indicates that the transition was equivocal in one of the models of pattern evolution within plumage patches. The weight of each transition probably occurring is represented on a scale of pale grey (occurs rarely) to black (occurs in every plumage patch possible)