Table 4 Model comparison using marginal density and Bayes’ factor. Marginal density and p-values were output by ABCtoolbox for each of the three models, while the Bayes’ factors were computed between each pair of models. (3,000 best simulations retained (1 %) from 300,000 simulations, 100,000 for each model)
Model | Locus | HLA−A | HLA−B | HLA−DRB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Southern-origin model | p-value | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Marginal density | 3.58E-27 | 1.93E-90 | 198 | |
Pincer model | p-value | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
Marginal density | 0.79 | 1.17E4 | 1.22E6 | |
Overlapping model | p-value | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
Marginal density | 8.20E3 | 6.00E7 | 4.99E10 | |
Bayes’ factor in favor of Pincer model to the Southern-origin model | 2.20E26 | 6.06E93 | 6.16E3 | |
Bayes’ factor in favor of Overlapping model to the Southern-origin model | 2.29E30 | 3.12E97 | 2.52E8 | |
Bayes’ factor in favor of Overlapping model to the Pincer model | 1.04E4 | 5.12E3 | 4.09E4 | |