Figure 3
From: The competition between simple and complex evolutionary trajectories in asexual populations
Valley crossing probability. (a) Simulation results for μ u =5×10−6, μ i =μ v =5×10−5, δ i =0, and s v =.07. The black vertical dashed lines indicate the boundaries between sequential fixation, stochastic tunneling, and semi-deterministic tunneling. Markers represent inferred valley-crossing probabilities from 1000 simulations per point. Lines represent theoretical predictions in each regime: in the stochastic tunneling regime, dashed lines represent the slowly changing background fitness approximation, and solid lines represent the full integral solution Equation (13). The color of the line indicates the uphill fitness s u . (b) Crossing probability for populations in the semi-deterministic regime across a wide range of parameters, plotted against the predictive parameter N Γ. Filled markers represent deleterious intermediates (\({\delta _{i}} = 10\sqrt {{\mu _{v}} {s_{v}}}\)), while open markers represent neutral intermediates (δ i =0).