Figure 4

Confidence in model selection for single-population models. The distributions of Akaike weights in favor of the true model are shown as boxplots versus sample size. Both ancient (A, filled circles to the left) and recent (B, open circles to the right) parameterizations are shown. The circle represents the median Akaike weight, the box extends from the 25th percentile of the distribution to 75th percentile, lines include the range of values observed (minus outliers), and outliers (defined as values more than 1.5 times the interquartile range from the box) are plotted as asterisks.