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Table 5 Demographic modeling.

From: Tracing the first steps of American sturgeon pioneers in Europe

  Posterior density
(N F )
Assumptions
  Mean 95% HPD N A N B T F T bot Source Remark
1 3.8 2–10 2000 2000 60 1 Ca+Mid baseline
2 3.0 2–6 10000 2000 60 1 Ca+Mid  
3 20.4 2–82 2000 2000 60 1 Ca  
4 3.6 2–10 2000 2000 50 1 Ca+Mid  
5 18.6 2–38 2000 2000 60 10 Ca+Mid  
6 10.4 2–26 2000 2000 60 --- Ca+Mid an exponential growth from N F to N B
  1. Estimated size of the founding population (N F ) to the Baltic Sea at the Early Middle Ages. The ABC method was applied to 1,000,000 simulated genetic data sets (mtDNA control region and 7 microsatellite loci). The following population history was assumed as a baseline 1: a small part of the source (Canadian, Ca, and Mid-Atlantic, Mid) populations colonized the Baltic Sea at 1200 years or 60 generations before present (T F ), experienced single-generation bottleneck (T bot ), then the populations of both sides of the Atlantic (N A , N B ) kept a constant size (effective population size = 2,000) until the Baltic population became extinct. Modified population assumptions were tested in the scenarios 2–6; 95% HPD (highest probability density) intervals are listed.