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Table 5 Demographic modeling.

From: Tracing the first steps of American sturgeon pioneers in Europe

 

Posterior density

(N F )

Assumptions

 

Mean

95% HPD

N A

N B

T F

T bot

Source

Remark

1

3.8

2–10

2000

2000

60

1

Ca+Mid

baseline

2

3.0

2–6

10000

2000

60

1

Ca+Mid

 

3

20.4

2–82

2000

2000

60

1

Ca

 

4

3.6

2–10

2000

2000

50

1

Ca+Mid

 

5

18.6

2–38

2000

2000

60

10

Ca+Mid

 

6

10.4

2–26

2000

2000

60

---

Ca+Mid

an exponential growth from N F to N B

  1. Estimated size of the founding population (N F ) to the Baltic Sea at the Early Middle Ages. The ABC method was applied to 1,000,000 simulated genetic data sets (mtDNA control region and 7 microsatellite loci). The following population history was assumed as a baseline 1: a small part of the source (Canadian, Ca, and Mid-Atlantic, Mid) populations colonized the Baltic Sea at 1200 years or 60 generations before present (T F ), experienced single-generation bottleneck (T bot ), then the populations of both sides of the Atlantic (N A , N B ) kept a constant size (effective population size = 2,000) until the Baltic population became extinct. Modified population assumptions were tested in the scenarios 2–6; 95% HPD (highest probability density) intervals are listed.