Power to avoid spurious support for one divergence event when divergence times are random. The tendency of models (A–D) M
, (E–H) M
, (I–L) M
, and (M–P) M
to support one divergence event when there is random variation in divergence times as simulated under the series of models. The plots illustrate histograms of the estimated posterior probability of the one divergence model, p(|τ|=1|B
(S∗)), from analyses of 1000 datasets simulated under each of the models. The 22 divergence times were randomly drawn as indicated above each column of plots, where time is respresented as millions of generations ago (MGA) according to a per-site rate of 1 × 10−8 mutations per generation. Four of the six data-generating models of the series are shown; please see Additional file 1: Figure S17 for all results.