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Figure 4 | BMC Evolutionary Biology

Figure 4

From: An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

Figure 4

Power to avoid spurious support for one divergence event when divergence times are random. The tendency of models (A–D) M m s B a y e s , (E–H) M U s h a p e d , (I–L) M U n i f o r m , and (M–P) M D P P to support one divergence event when there is random variation in divergence times as simulated under the msBayes series of models. The plots illustrate histograms of the estimated posterior probability of the one divergence model, p(|τ|=1|B ε (S)), from analyses of 1000 datasets simulated under each of the msBayes models. The 22 divergence times were randomly drawn as indicated above each column of plots, where time is respresented as millions of generations ago (MGA) according to a per-site rate of 1 × 10−8 mutations per generation. Four of the six data-generating models of the msBayes series are shown; please see Additional file 1: Figure S17 for all results.

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