Figure 1

Comparison of model-choice accuracy. Model-choice accuracy for models (A–D) M _{m s B a y e s} , (E–H) M _{U s h a p e d} , (I–L) M _{U n i f o r m} , and (M–P) M _{D P P} when analyzing data generated under models (A, E, I, and M) M _{m s B a y e s} , (B, F, J, and N) M _{U s h a p e d} , (C, G, K, and O) M _{U n i f o r m} , and (D, H, L, and P) M _{D P P} . The unadjusted posterior probability of a single divergence event, based on |τ|=1, from 50,000 posterior estimates are assigned to bins of width 0.05 and plotted against the proportion of replicates in each bin where the truth is |τ|=1.