Figure 4

The probability of population replacement for five Wolbachia specific parameters. CI is the level of cytoplasmic incompatibility, MI is the level of maternal inheritance, IF is the initial frequency of Wolbachia infection, RF is the relative fecundity of Wolbachia-infected adult females, and RLV is the relative larval viability. Each line was generated by calculating the probability of a population replacement event at one one-hundredth increments for parameter values between zero and one (n = 1000 simulations/increment). IF and CI show similar responses to parameter value increases. The probability of population replacement increases, but then asymptotically approaches one. The response curves for RF, MI, and RLV behave similarly, each parameter requiring values to be greater than approximately 0.7. The curves then quickly increase toward one. RLV is the most sensitive parameter requiring values approaching 0.95 before a population replacement event can occur. Realistic probabilities of population replacement (i.e., population replacement occurs in greater than 50% of simulations) does not occur until RLV is greater than or equal to 0.99.