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Table 1 Age and parameter estimates of the diversification analyses.

From: Diversity dynamics in New Caledonia: towards the end of the museum model?

Parameter estimates

      

Pure birth model

  

DDl/Yule 2-rate

     

Dataset

Age estimate

Method

γ

γC

LH

AIC

r1

LH

AIC

r1

r2

k

st

ΔAIC (DDL-pb)

Niemeyera

32.4 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-2.219 (p = 0.013)

-1.631 (p = 0.013)

104.013

-206.026

2.312

107.184

-210.368

4.479

N/A

52.716

N/A

4.342 (p = 0.039)

  

Bayesian inference

-2.348 (p = 0.009)

-1.638 (p = 0.009)

132.285

-262.569

2.678

135.736

-267.472

5.080

N/A

61.432

N/A

5.278 (p = 0.035)

Scincidae

35.4-40.7 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-4.311 (p = 8.12e-06)

-1.793 (p = 2.00e-04)

83.371

-164.742

1.745

94.684

-185.368

5.808

N/A

39.262

N/A

20.626 (p = 0)

  

Bayesian inference

-3.752 (p = 8.79e-05)

-1.811 (p = 2.00e-04)

93.171

-184.342

1.907

101.696

-199.392

5.375

N/A

42.899

N/A

15.050 (p = 0.001)

Troglosironidae

49 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-2.951 (p = 0.002)

-1.299 (p = 4.00e-04)

12.658

-23.317

1.396

19.896

-35.792

8.555

N/A

12.339

N/A

12.476 (p = 0)

  

Bayesian inference

-2.173 (p = 0.015)

-1.324 (p = 0.006)

17.666

-33.332

2.201

21.667

-39.334

8.796

N/A

12.778

N/A

6.003 (p = 0.011)

Papuadytes

9 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-1.943 (p = 0.026)

-1.518289 (p = 0.019)

18.348

-34.697

1.606

21.468

-38.936

5.018

N/A

15.474

N/A

4.239 (p = 0.04)

  

Bayesian inference

-1.648 (p = 0.050)

-1.554558 (p = 0.041)

19.569

-37.137

1.764

21.294

-39.882

4.865

N/A

16.024

N/A

2.745 (p = 0.086)

Gracilipsodes

14.4 Ma*

Penalized likelihood

-1.082 (p = 0.140)

-1.325 (p = 0.081)

7.671

-13.342

1.431

9.201

-14.403

4.307

N/A

10.309

N/A

1.061 (p = 0.045)

  

Bayesian inference

-1.596 (p = 0.108)

-1.309 (p = 0.059)

7.535

-13.070

1.407

9.357

-14.714

4.600

N/A

10.088

N/A

1.644 (p = 0.062)

Helicopha

8.2 Ma*

Penalized likelihood

-0.491 (p = 0.312)

-1.345 (p = 0.229)

32.733

-63.466

2.191

33.152

-62.303

3.301

N/A

32.985

N/A

-1.162 (p = 0.563)

  

Bayesian inference

-0.016 (p = 0.404)

-1.399 (p = 0.400)

24.042

-66.083

2.367

34.137

-64.274

2.906

N/A

56.686

N/A

-1.809 (p = 0.828)

Xanthochorema

11.9 Ma*

Penalized likelihood

-1.598 (p = 0.055)

-1.309 (p = 0.028)

7.726

-13.453

1.441

10.446

-16.891

5.858

N/A

9.688

N/A

3.437 (p = 0.026)

  

Bayesian inference

-1.613 (p = 0.053)

-1.305 (p = 0.023)

7.718

-13.436

1.440

10.479

-16.958

5.906

N/A

9.676

N/A

3.522 (p = 0.016)

Hydropsychinae

28.2 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-2.850 (p = 0.002)

-1.516 (p = 0.002)

57.944

-113.888

2.108

64.609

-123.219

3.185

0.417

N/A

0.176

9.33118 (p = 0)

  

Bayesian inference

-2.582 (p = 0.005)

-1.519 (p = 0.004)

58.046

-114.091

2.116

62.474

-120.949

5.387

N/A

30.960

N/A

7.933 (p = 0.007)

Agmina

21.9 Ma

Penalized likelihood

-2.647 (p = 004)

-1.804 (p = 0.007)

242.743

-483.486

2.544

250.947

-495.894

7.539

2.118

N/A

0.639

12.40858 (p = 0.001)

  

Bayesian inference

-1.969 (p = 0.024)

-1.885 (p = 0.043)

249.704

-497.407

2.799

255.126

-504.252

6.755

2.404

N/A

0.596

6.845 (p = 0.153)

  1. Age estimates followed by an asterisk indicate those calculated in this publication, other estimates are taken from the literature (see text). In the DDL/Yule 2-rate column parameters are for the DDL model for all groups except the Agmina where Yule 2-rate parameters are shown. γ is the diversification statistic by [34], γc is the threshold required for the γ still to be significant after accounting for missing taxa (MCCR test), LH is the maximum likelihood of the model, AIC is the Akaike information criterion, r1 and r2 are diversification rates, k is the carrying capacity, st is the rate shift point, ΔAIC is the difference in AIC between the pure birth (Yule model) and the rate variant model.